How Sealed Value Forecasts Pokémon Sealed Product Prices
Sealed Value is a historical-price model. It asks one narrow question: based only on how comparable products in the same sealed family moved at the same age, what price range and action signal does the current sold-price history support? It does not score artwork, characters, card lists, social sentiment, or personal collecting preference.
1. Identify the exact physical product
Each physical product is classified separately as a Pokémon Center ETB, standard retail ETB, six-pack Booster Bundle, conventional 36-pack Booster Box, or split-art variant. The model keeps all four product-family histories separate because their distribution, contents, entry prices, and premiums differ.
2. Preserve weekly price history
The update process appends missing weekly sales observations instead of replacing older records. That creates a repeatable historical series for every tracked ETB. Weeks with no sales remain visible but do not count as fresh transaction evidence.
3. Normalize every set by age
Calendar dates are converted into months since release. Each ETB is then compared with older boxes at the same lifecycle point. This prevents a 2021 release and a 2026 release from being compared merely because their current dollar prices happen to match.
4. Build a robust cohort curve
Each set contributes once per half-month age bucket. Extreme values are removed with robust deviation and tail filters before the remaining normalized paths are combined. The center path becomes the expected curve; the middle 50% of observations helps define a likely range. Large outliers can still affect the market, but they are not allowed to dictate the typical forecast.
5. Extend mature behavior
When a set reaches an age with fewer older comparisons, the model uses outlier-filtered forward windows from mature ETBs instead of drawing a flat line. This is why the future curve can continue to rise or fall while still widening its uncertainty range.
6. Convert the forecast into one suggestion
The model combines expected return, entry price, prior run-up, print-cycle timing, downside, and evidence into one BUY, HOLD, SELL, or PASS suggestion. BUY and HOLD currently require at least 100% modeled 12-month ROI.
7. Measure historical error
The current walk-forward tests contain 69 Pokémon Center ETB samples, 69 standard ETB samples, 0 Booster Bundle samples, and 42 Booster Box samples. A family with no completed 12-month windows is labeled low confidence rather than given a false error statistic. No single target should be treated as precise.
What the model deliberately ignores
It does not know future print decisions, fees, taxes, shipping, condition, liquidity at your desired sale price, macroeconomic changes, or sudden demand shocks. It does not predict individual cards or infer one sealed-product family's return from another.
For the most transparent examples, open Shrouded Fable, Prismatic Evolutions, or Journey Together. Every set page shows the current value, projected range, one suggestion, and supporting evidence.